I play fantasy baseball religiously. I enjoy the stats and being able to play fake GM with no real-life consequences. We’re well into the baseball season now, but I’ve always enjoyed the time before the season where people get to share their “bold predictions.” Most of these are super unrealistic, and that’s by design. It’s just fun to think about. That was the inspiration for this post. It’s been a while and I’m probably not going to be writing as often as I used to moving forward (it’s rec letter writing season already). However, I still get intrigued by what is happening (and not happening) in my field. So here are my bold predictions for the future of college admissions. 

Legacy Admissions will be universally eliminated

Affirmative action is gone. I think legacy admissions is next, and it will be the colleges that make this choice. I’ve written about this previously and I’m feeling more certain that this will be standard practice in the not-so-distant future. I’ve heard someone say cynically that legacy admissions is essentially a worse form of affirmative action. Consider this notorious Time Magazine article that addressed how a former President benefited from “affirmative action.” Some colleges have already eliminated legacy status as a factor, and it may not even be that significant a factor to begin with, depending on the school. For other colleges, they can always find other ways to consider legacies without having an explicit policy. If “lived experience” can take the place of affirmative action, colleges can publicly eliminate legacy admissions while still taking institutional priorities into account.

Character assessment will become an official factor

Can character be measured on a college application? It sure feels like there’s more of an effort to try. In the last two NACAC conferences I attended, there were sessions on character as a factor in admissions. It was mostly theoretical, but I sensed a momentum shift. Maybe it was the post-retreat sort of energy, but I don’t think it’s out of the question. In what form this would take, I have no idea. You can make the case that character is already considered with the use of disciplinary history and letters of rec to a degree. Character will never outweigh the transcript. However, when it comes to activities, are students being motivated by personal values or by other incentives? I really wish there was a way to know for sure because this is where character really comes into play. It should matter. Maybe it will matter more soon.

Standardized testing will return for most highly selective colleges

If this does happen, it’s most likely to happen the soonest. I thought it would be this year, but it looks like some colleges are giving it one more year before deciding on an official policy moving forward. If testing does return more universally, it doesn’t mean it will be a deciding factor. What it would do is potentially discourage some students from applying if they don’t have the test scores. The test optional environment is inflating application numbers. Since the most selective colleges don’t have as much incentive to boost their apps, they can use test scores as sort of a way to control numbers. There’s the other factor that test scores are actually helpful for admissions. Maybe they help colleges predict graduation rates more accurately and I would imagine that was much harder to do in the test-optional environment. For students who are at a socio-economic disadvantage, that would still be taken into consideration. I think testing will come back in a year, and I don’t necessarily like it, but I understand it.

Traditional essays will be replaced with something else

Not bold enough so far? Try this one. With the rise of college consultants, essay coaches, and AI, there is a growing skepticism with the essay component of the application. Years ago, I had an international student at my school and it was so obvious that the writing was not her own work. I knew she was working with an agent so I called him out and he got defensive. Maybe the UC system has it right–writing sections that aren’t really essays. It feels like the Common Application essay has lost significance in a way because they feel so polished. I wonder if it’s worth exploring other ways to hear a student’s voice. Maybe video interviews will become the new norm. Or maybe use graded papers from school (though maybe students are using AI for those as well). For what it’s worth, here’s a statement on AI from Georgia Tech. Essays are probably here to stay, but the spotlight on AI will only increase. 

These predictions won’t come true this year, or maybe ever. It’s just fun to think about.